There's been a lot of talk on Yachts and Yachting's Discussion Forums lately about how some classes have "obviously unfair" handicaps. Top of the list are often Merlins, Phantoms and Fireballs. Here I've combined the results for the 2002 through to 2007 Bloody Marys. I've excluded all DNFs as being likely to distort the results. Of course this brings in another distortion, in that Classes that did well in the very windy 2005 Bloody Mary, when only 36 finished, would equally distort the results. Predictably the Fireball did well that year, with three boats in the top 15, but suprisingly the 420 didn't. Unsuprisingly the Thames Rater didn't finish that year - I doubt they even bothered to rig the boat!
I've shown the results in two tables, one with 2005 included, and one with it excluded. You'll see that it makes quite a difference in the case of several classes. There isn't really enough data here to be very statistically significant. There may be 100 entries listed, but its only 6 races and there are so many classes with just a handful of boats. By contrast the RYA's calculations are based on returns that include thousands of races every year.
| Mean | Mean exc 2005 | |||
| Thames A Rater | 3 | Thames A Rater | 3 | |
| Topaz Magno | 9 | Topaz Magno | 9 | |
| Rocket | 15 | Rocket | 15 | |
| International Canoe | 22 | 2.4m | 20 | |
| Firefly | 23 | International Canoe | 22 | |
| National 12 | 24 | Firefly | 23 | |
| 2.4m | 25 | National 12 | 24 | |
| Byte Cii | 26 | Byte Cii | 26 | |
| Gp14 | 27 | Gp14 | 26 | |
| Solo | 28 | Solo | 28 | |
| Europe | 29 | Europe | 29 | |
| Fireball | 31 | International 14 | 31 | |
| International 14 | 31 | National 18 | 32 | |
| National 18 | 32 | Fireball | 34 | |
| 29er | 37 | 29er | 37 | |
| Heatwave | 37 | Heatwave | 37 | |
| 49er | 38 | 49er | 38 | |
| Merlin Rocket | 39 | Rs400 | 39 | |
| Rs Vareo | 39 | Merlin Rocket | 39 | |
| Rs400 | 39 | Rs Vareo | 39 | |
| Flying Fifteen | 40 | Flying Fifteen | 39 | |
| Scorpion | 40 | Scorpion | 40 | |
| 505 | 42 | 505 | 42 | |
| International Moth | 43 | Rs200 | 42 | |
| Rs200 | 44 | International Moth | 43 | |
| Phantom | 44 | Phantom | 44 | |
| Enterprise | 44 | Enterprise | 44 | |
| Rs800 | 44 | Rs800 | 44 | |
| Snipe | 46 | Snipe | 46 | |
| Albacore | 46 | Albacore | 46 | |
| Hornet | 46 | Hornet | 46 | |
| Laser Stratos | 47 | Laser Stratos | 47 | |
| Finn | 48 | Finn | 48 | |
| Lark | 50 | Miracle | 50 | |
| 29er | 50 | Lark | 50 | |
| Rs Vision | 50 | Rs Vision | 50 | |
| Cherub | 51 | Cherub | 51 | |
| Sonar | 51 | Sonar | 51 | |
| Laser 5000 | 53 | 29er | 51 | |
| 470 | 54 | Laser 5000 | 53 | |
| Buzz | 54 | Buzz | 54 | |
| 420 | 54 | Rs300 | 54 | |
| Rs300 | 54 | 59er | 55 | |
| 59er | 55 | K6 | 55 | |
| K6 | 55 | Bosun | 55 | |
| Bosun | 55 | B14 | 55 | |
| B14 | 55 | 420 | 56 | |
| Miracle | 56 | Mrx | 57 | |
| Mrx | 57 | Topper | 58 | |
| Topper | 59 | Rs600 | 59 | |
| Rs600 | 59 | Supernova | 60 | |
| Supernova | 60 | Pegasus | 61 | |
| Pegasus | 61 | Yeoman | 62 | |
| Blaze | 62 | Blaze | 62 | |
| Boss | 62 | Boss | 62 | |
| Iso | 64 | 470 | 63 | |
| Rs700 | 64 | Iso | 64 | |
| Laser 4000 | 65 | Rs700 | 64 | |
| Graduate | 65 | Laser 4000 | 65 | |
| Comet | 65 | Graduate | 65 | |
| Yeoman | 65 | Comet | 65 | |
| Flash | 65 | Flash | 65 | |
| Topaz Duo | 66 | Topaz Duo | 66 | |
| Vortex | 68 | Vortex | 68 | |
| Osprey | 69 | Osprey | 69 | |
| Laser | 71 | Laser | 70 | |
| Contender | 71 | Tasar | 71 | |
| Tasar | 71 | Crawley | 71 | |
| Crawley | 71 | Musto Skiff | 71 | |
| Musto Skiff | 71 | Laser Radial | 77 | |
| Laser Radial | 76 | Classic 14 | 77 | |
| Classic 14 | 77 | Norfolk Punt | 77 | |
| Norfolk Punt | 77 | Spice | 80 | |
| Spice | 80 | Contender | 83 | |
| Laser 4.7 | 84 | Laser 4.7 | 84 | |
| Laser 2000 | 85 | Kestrel | 87 | |
| Kestrel | 87 | Topper Xenon | 87 | |
| Topper Xenon | 87 | Laser 2000 | 88 | |
| Laser 3000 | 87 | 18ft Skiff | 89 | |
| Laser Ii | 88 | Topper Omega | 90 | |
| 18ft Skiff | 89 | Laser Ii | 91 | |
| Topper Omega | 90 | Wayfarer | 94 | |
| Wayfarer | 94 | Byte | 94 | |
| Byte | 94 | Rs Feva | 94 | |
| Rs Feva | 94 | Laser 3000 | 96 | |
| Laser Vago | 98 | Laser Vago | 98 |
So, the top ten handicap bandits are the Thames Rater, the Topaz Magno, the 2.4M, the International Canoe, The National 12, the National 18, the Europe, the Firefly and the GP14 then? I really don't think so. Most of those classes haven't got anough results to be statistically significant, and the National 12s bring along a hot fleet. Of the so called "obviously unfair" handicaps none are in the top 10 and the Fireball comes in the top 20, and down at 16th if you exclude 2005. Nope, there really aren't any bandit handicaps: the system is really pretty good.
Oh and the Laser is well down the list... if you think that reflects an unfair handicap I suggest you watch the pack of Lasers covering each other to the back of the fleet one year. At my club, where we have three or four very talented Laser sailors, I've noted that if one of them gets a really good shift on the first beat and gets well clear in one of our major handicap races then he'll probably win or be very close on handicap, but if three or four of them are swapping places right round the track they'll be nowhere overall.
Here's the complete table. To summarise what I've done. I took the results for each race, and converted the actual finishing place into a percentage, so that if 200 boats finished both first and second scored 1%. I then averaged out the finishing places for each class. and that's the numbers in the Average Finishing Place columns. The Number of finishers column shows just that. The more finishers the more the results are likely to have some degree of statistical significance, so, as you can see, there's isn't really enough data on most classes to give much statistical validity. The Worst, Best, Average and Range columns give an idea of how the classes performed against the motional average of 50% finishing place. You can draw all sorts of conclusions from this, but for most classes the numbers aren't really enough to give much meaning. Its interesting, for instance, that the RS400 comes out as being one of the most consistently performing classes. I wouldn't have picked that one.
| 2007 Av | 2006 Av | 2005 Av | 2004 Av | 2003 Av | 2002 Av | 2007 Fin | 2006 Fin | 2005 Fin | 2004 Fin | 2003 Fin | 2002 Fin | Worst | Best | Mean | Mean exc 2005 | Range | |
| Laser | 65 | 50 | 79 | 77 | 67 | 77 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 23 | 11 | 15 | 79 | 50 | 71 | 70 | 29 |
| Rs400 | 35 | 41 | 47 | 42 | 40 | 35 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 20 | 47 | 35 | 39 | 39 | 12 |
| Rs200 | 46 | 39 | 65 | 38 | 63 | 32 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 65 | 32 | 44 | 42 | 33 |
| Topper | 78 | 63 | 85 | 73 | 53 | 41 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 85 | 41 | 59 | 58 | 44 |
| Laser Radial | 81 | 76 | 62 | 84 | 65 | 88 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 88 | 62 | 76 | 77 | 26 |
| Gp14 | 4 | 65 | 44 | 17 | 28 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 65 | 4 | 27 | 26 | 61 |
| 29er | 70 | 55 | 12 | 59 | 22 | 33 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 70 | 12 | 50 | 51 | 58 |
| Fireball | 63 | 41 | 21 | 26 | 11 | 44 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 63 | 11 | 31 | 34 | 52 |
| 2.4m | 5 | 16 | 97 | 15 | 56 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 97 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 93 |
| Yeoman | 94 | 79 | 100 | 55 | 76 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 100 | 44 | 65 | 62 | 56 |
| Laser 3000 | 96 | 91 | 29 | 98 | 94 | 98 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 98 | 29 | 87 | 96 | 69 |
| Merlin Rocket | 34 | 32 | 27 | 52 | 55 | 21 | 13 | 0 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 55 | 27 | 39 | 39 | 28 | |
| 420 | 68 | 35 | 59 | 45 | 62 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 68 | 35 | 54 | 56 | 33 | |
| National 12 | 12 | 19 | 26 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 36 | 12 | 24 | 24 | 24 | |
| International 14 | 48 | 26 | 28 | 4 | 32 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 4 | 31 | 31 | 44 | |
| Enterprise | 33 | 12 | 35 | 78 | 53 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 78 | 12 | 44 | 44 | 66 | |
| Rs800 | 65 | 51 | 41 | 30 | 48 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 65 | 30 | 44 | 44 | 35 | |
| 49er | 64 | 49 | 29 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 64 | 0 | 38 | 38 | 64 | |
| 505 | 62 | 32 | 42 | 48 | 36 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 32 | 42 | 42 | 30 | |
| Laser 4000 | 77 | 62 | 75 | 57 | 54 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 77 | 54 | 65 | 65 | 23 | |
| Solo | 10 | 21 | 27 | 59 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 59 | 10 | 28 | 28 | 49 | |
| Europe | 30 | 33 | 17 | 24 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 17 | 29 | 29 | 20 | |
| Firefly | 16 | 24 | 21 | 59 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 59 | 16 | 23 | 23 | 43 | |
| Rs700 | 91 | 50 | 55 | 71 | 84 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 91 | 50 | 64 | 64 | 41 | |
| Albacore | 30 | 78 | 43 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 78 | 30 | 46 | 46 | 48 | |
| Iso | 83 | 78 | 58 | 61 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 83 | 55 | 64 | 64 | 28 | |
| Laser 2000 | 97 | 50 | 81 | 91 | 92 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 97 | 50 | 85 | 88 | 47 | |
| Lark | 19 | 62 | 60 | 57 | 66 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 66 | 19 | 50 | 50 | 47 | |
| Tasar | 96 | 62 | 72 | 62 | 82 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 96 | 62 | 71 | 71 | 34 | |
| Rs600 | 63 | 59 | 53 | 43 | 63 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 63 | 43 | 59 | 59 | 20 | |
| Buzz | 55 | 59 | 69 | 19 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 69 | 19 | 54 | 54 | 50 | |
| Hornet | 58 | 24 | 41 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 58 | 24 | 46 | 46 | 34 | ||
| K6 | 59 | 42 | 63 | 63 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 63 | 42 | 55 | 55 | 21 | ||
| Laser Ii | 65 | 96 | 92 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 96 | 65 | 88 | 91 | 31 | ||
| B14 | 61 | 73 | 56 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 73 | 20 | 55 | 55 | 53 | ||
| Rs300 | 11 | 75 | 23 | 61 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 75 | 11 | 54 | 54 | 64 | ||
| Contender | 87 | 85 | 9 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 87 | 9 | 71 | 83 | 78 | ||
| Finn | 18 | 59 | 48 | 51 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 18 | 48 | 48 | 41 | ||
| Graduate | 62 | 67 | 22 | 79 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 79 | 22 | 65 | 65 | 57 | ||
| Scorpion | 37 | 62 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 62 | 8 | 40 | 40 | 54 | ||
| 470 | 51 | 18 | 80 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 80 | 18 | 54 | 63 | 62 | ||
| Miracle | 92 | 82 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 92 | 3 | 56 | 50 | 89 | ||
| Cherub | 84 | 94 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 94 | 1 | 51 | 51 | 93 | ||
| Flying Fifteen | 41 | 34 | 15 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 68 | 15 | 40 | 39 | 53 | ||
| Vortex | 74 | 50 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 77 | 50 | 68 | 68 | 27 | |||
| Comet | 46 | 77 | 90 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 90 | 46 | 65 | 65 | 44 | |||
| International Moth | 64 | 14 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 64 | 14 | 43 | 43 | 50 | |||
| Wayfarer | 99 | 95 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 99 | 91 | 94 | 94 | 8 | |||
| Laser 5000 | 67 | 62 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 67 | 29 | 53 | 53 | 38 | |||
| Phantom | 39 | 24 | 62 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 24 | 44 | 44 | 38 | |||
| Bosun | 95 | 31 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 25 | 55 | 55 | 70 | |||
| Thames A Rater | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |||
| National 18 | 23 | 19 | 53 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 53 | 19 | 32 | 32 | 34 | |||
| Rs Feva | 100 | 93 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 93 | 94 | 94 | 7 | ||||
| Blaze | 59 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 59 | 62 | 62 | 4 | ||||
| Musto Skiff | 71 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 0 | ||||
| Osprey | 73 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 73 | 55 | 69 | 69 | 18 | ||||
| Topper Omega | 91 | 89 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 89 | 90 | 90 | 2 | ||||
| Byte Cii | 13 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 13 | 26 | 26 | 25 | ||||
| Kestrel | 85 | 89 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 85 | 87 | 87 | 4 | ||||
| Laser 4.7 | 100 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 68 | 84 | 84 | 32 | ||||
| Pegasus | 61 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 0 | ||||
| Spice | 99 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 99 | 61 | 80 | 80 | 38 | ||||
| Topaz Duo | 42 | 89 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 89 | 42 | 66 | 66 | 47 | ||||
| Supernova | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 0 | |||||
| 59er | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 0 | |||||
| Byte | 94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 0 | |||||
| 18ft Skiff | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 89 | 89 | 89 | 89 | 0 | |||||
| 29er | 37 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 0 | |||||
| Boss | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 0 | |||||
| Classic 14 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 0 | |||||
| Crawley | 71 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 0 | |||||
| Flash | 65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 0 | |||||
| Heatwave | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 0 | |||||
| International Canoe | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 0 | |||||
| Laser Stratos | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 0 | |||||
| Laser Vago | 98 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98 | 98 | 98 | 98 | 0 | |||||
| Mrx | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 0 | |||||
| Norfolk Punt | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 0 | |||||
| Rocket | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0 | |||||
| Rs Vareo | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 0 | |||||
| Rs Vision | 50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 | |||||
| Snipe | 46 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 0 | |||||
| Sonar | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 0 | |||||
| Topaz Magno | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 0 | |||||
| Topper Xenon | 87 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 87 | 87 | 87 | 0 |
I've had a good go at compiling this and spent a reasonable amount of time on it, but it required manipulating a lot of data in various formats to bring it together, with origina typos, my typos, errors in the Word and Excel macros I used to assemble the data, all the rest of it. There's almost bound to be a mistake or two in there. I've also naughtily changed one artifact of the Stats - the year that there was 1 49er and it won, the percentage place to the nearest number worked out at 0% of finishers (there were more than 200 finishers). So I changed it to 1!
© Jim Champ, March 2007